Business Disruption Scenarios - Q3 2021 - 14 scenarios

Every quarter, we will create a blog post for all the business disruption scenarios we created from our experiences and some trending issues that could impact your business. We post business disruption scenarios on our Instagram weekly which assesses 9 key areas based on our operational resiliency methodology that encompasses Business Continuity, Emergency Management, Health & Safety, Wellness, Project Management, Lean Six Sigma, Agile, and Information Mapping to mitigate operational risks.

The 9 key categories of business assessment are:

  1. Consumer Buying Behaviour

  2. Corporate Functions

  3. External Environmental Factors

  4. Marketing

  5. People Resiliency

  6. Process Re-engineering

  7. Service vs. Skill-based Transitions

  8. Supply Chains

  9. Technologies

By using these key categories, we create business disruption scenarios and utilize our Agile perspective analysis user story framework to help assess, ideate, build and manage ways for your business to continue operating during a business disruption.

While reviewing the scenarios, refer to the following 2 charts to help your business identify ways to navigate a business disruption based on our perspective analysis process:

Chart 1 - Understanding your stakeholders

Chart 2 - What is the expected benefit from your stakeholder regardless of the business disruption?

If you identified specific processes that you may need to change or implement because of a specific stakeholder need for you to continue business, let us know in the comments.

  • Download our Perspective Analysis Agile User Story framework here.

  • Contact us to begin with an operational resiliency assessment.


Q3 2021 Scenario Summary:

What process would you need to change for each scenario?


July 29th, 2021 Scenario: 50% reduction in your client's ability to pay on time.

  • Key Area: Consumer Buying Behaviour

  • Other Known Details:

  1. Most of your clients are finding it difficult to make ends meet,

  2. There will be a major construction project that starts in 8 months and will generate jobs and help the community recover - including your business's bottom line.


August 9th, 2021 Scenario: Required skills for your jobs are difficult to hire due to competitive wages.

  • Key Area: Service Vs. Skill Based Transitions

  • Other Known Details:

  1. Wages are about 20% higher at the market rate for the skills you need to run your business.


August 16th, 2021 Scenario: A critical supplier has gone out of business.

  • Key Area: Supply Chains

  • Other Known Details:

  1. A supplier of products or services to your business has gone out of business abruptly,

  2. You have 3 months left of inventory if you depend on their products,

  3. You have 1 month of support if you depend on services.


August 25th, 2021 Scenario: A competitor received a large investment to scale operations.

  • Key Area: External Environmental Factors

  • Other Known Details:

  1. The investment firm is known to scale companies quickly.


August 25th, 2021 Scenario: A highly skilled employee who manages the entire business function is leaving in 2 weeks.

  • Key Area: Corporate Functions

  • Other Known Details:

  1. This employee knows everything to keep a specific department functioning,

  2. All client orders must continue when the employee leaves due to contractual obligations,

  3. It could take up to 6-8 weeks from the time of hire for your new employee to fulfill this vacant role.


September 10th, 2021 Scenario: A client demands an increase of 30% for your products or services in 45 calendar days.

  • Key Area: Process re-engineering

  • Other Known Details:

  1. This client won a vendor contract and needs to scale up its product or services,

  2. If you do not meet the deadline, the client will need to find another supplier.


September 17th, 2021 Scenario: You cannot afford to spend money on marketing for 3 months due to an unexpected financial loss.

  • Key Area: Marketing

  • Other Known Details:

  1. The financial loss was unexpected.


September 24th, 2021 Scenario: Productivity of staff has been reduced by 20%.

  • Key Area: People Resiliency

  • Other Known Details:

  1. Your service level agreements to produce products or deliver services is reduced by 20%,

  2. This trend started 2 weeks ago,

  3. Staff feel burnt out.


October 1st, 2021 Scenario: An employee opens an email.

  • Key Area: Technology

  • Other Known Details:

  1. Your company has been targeted by a ransomware attack,

  2. Computers connected to your network have been blocked from use,

  3. The PC monitors display a message regarding blocked files, and a method of payment to release the block,

  4. A customer was anonymously notified about the ransomware attack and has raised their privacy concerns on social media.

Caption note: Play the "Nova Labs cybersecurity" game by visiting


October 1st, 2021 Scenario: More of your competitors are socializing their Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance (ESG) practices.

  • Key Area: Consumer Buying Behaviour

  • Other Known Details: